Do institutions matter in a crisis? Regime type and decisive responses to Covid-19

Governments around the world have been implementing measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and ease its economic fallout, and there has been extensive variation in the speed and extent to which they have introduced new policies. This article examines the role that regime type plays in determining the decisiveness of government policies to tackle the coronavirus pandemic and its spill over effects. We hypothesize that democratic regimes may be slower to introduce restrictions on civil liberties due to a "freedom commitment” and may be faster to provide economic protections due to a "welfare commitment”. We use event history analysis and data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker to examine whether less democratic regimes are more likely to implement restrictions faster, and spending programmes slower. Contrary to expectations, our findings suggest that more authoritarian regimes do not implement constraints more quickly or spending more slowly than more democratic regimes. The finding holds across various regime measures and model specifications. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Democratization is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Protest against Covid-19 containment policies in European countries

Protests against coronavirus policies have occurred in all European countries. The intensity of protest varies strongly, however. We explain this variation by strategic choices that protest organizers make to maintain the protest movement. Specifically, we argue that protest organizers pay heed to the dynamics of the pandemic in their country: the number of protest events is higher when and where mortality rates are lower and containment policies are more stringent. At the same time, the number of protest events is influenced by political factors. Despite the fact that civil liberties facilitate trust in government, these two variables exert opposite effects: while higher trust in government and public administration reduces the number of protest events, stronger civil liberties increase the number of protest events. We find evidence for these hypotheses in an analysis of the number of monthly protest events based on information from ACLED, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, in 28 European countries between March 2020 and August 2021. © The Author(s) 2023.

The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics.

We incorporate age-specific socio-economic interactions in a SIR macroeconomic model to study the role of demographic factors for the COVID-19 epidemic evolution, its macroeconomic effects and possible containment measures. We capture the endogenous response of rational individuals who choose to reduce inter- and intra-generational social interactions, consumption- and labor-related personal exposure to the virus, while not internalizing the impact of their actions on others. We find that social distancing measures targeted to the elderly (who face higher mortality risk and are not part of the labor force) are best suited to save lives and mitigate output losses. The optimal economic shutdown generates small gains in terms of lives saved and large output losses, for any given type of social distancing. These results are confirmed by calibrating the model to match real epidemic and economic data in the context of a scenario exercise.

The Work, Economic, and Remittance Stress and Distress of the COVID-19 Pandemic Containment Policies: The Case of Venezuelan Migrants in Argentina and Chile.

According to the social stress process model, global crises are macro-level stressors that generate physiological stress and psychological distress. However, existing research has not identified immigrants' COVID-19 containment policy stressors or examined the social stress of sending remittances amid crises. Drawing on in-depth longitudinal interviews with 46 Venezuelan immigrants-half before and half during the pandemic-in Chile and Argentina, we identified the COVID-19 containment policies' stressors. We focused on Venezuelan immigrants because they constitute one of the largest internationally displaced populations, with most migrating within South America. We found that the governmental COVID-19 containment measures in both countries generated four stressors: employment loss, income loss, devaluation of employment status, and inability to send needed remittances. Moreover, sending remittances helped some migrants cope with concerns about loved ones in Venezuela. However, sending remittances became a social stressor when immigrants struggled to simultaneously sustain their livelihoods and send financial support to relatives experiencing hardships in Venezuela. For some immigrants, these adversities generated other stressors (e.g., housing instability) and symptoms of anxiety and depression. Broadly, for immigrants, the stressors of global crises transcend international borders and generate high stress, which strains their psychological well-being.

JUE Insight: The geography of pandemic containment.

How does interconnectedness affect the course of a pandemic? What are the optimal containment policies in an economy with connected regions? We embed a spatial SIR model into a multi-sector quantitative trade model. We calibrate it to US states and the COVID-19 pandemic and find that interconnectedness increases the death toll by 146,200 lives. State-level policies that reduce within-state economic activity mitigate welfare losses by more than a uniform national policy or a policy that only reduces mobility between states. The optimal policy in mitigating welfare losses generated by the pandemic combines local within- and between-state restrictions and saves 289,300 lives, despite significantly exacerbating economic losses and imposing mobility restrictions across states. Different timing of policies across states is key to minimize welfare losses. States like South Carolina might have imposed internal lockdowns too early but travel restrictions too late.

Ideological polarization during a pandemic: Tracking the alignment of attitudes toward COVID containment policies and left-right self-identification.

Research on opinion polarization has focused on growing divides in positions toward political issues between the more politically and ideologically engaged parts of the population. However, it is fundamentally difficult to track the alignment process between ideological group identity and issue positions because classically controversial political issues are already strongly associated with ideological or partisan identity. This study uses the COVID pandemic as an unique opportunity to investigate polarizing trends in the population. Pandemic management policies were not a politicized issue before COVID, but became strongly contested after governments all across the world initiated policies to contain the pandemic. We use data from the Austrian Corona Panel Project (ACPP) to track trajectories in attitudes toward current COVID measures over the course of more than a year of the pandemic. We differentiate individuals by their ideological self-identity as measured by left-right self-placement. Results suggest that all ideological groups viewed the containment measures as similarly appropriate in the very beginning. However, already in the first weeks, individuals who identify as right-wing increasingly viewed the policies as too extreme, whereas centrists and left-wing identifiers viewed them as appropriate. Opinion differences between left-wing and right-wing identifiers solidified over the course of the pandemic, while centrists fluctuated between left and right self-identifiers. However, at the end of our observation period, there are signs of convergence between all groups. We discuss these findings from the perspective of theoretical models of opinion polarization and suggest that polarization dynamics are likely to stop when the political context (salience of certain issues and concrete material threats) changes.

The Politics of Covid-19 Containment Policies in europe.

Do partisan preferences, the electoral system, checks on government, political fragmentation, civil liberties and trust contribute to explaining the stringency of containment policies in European countries? Empirical studies suggest that political science theories have helped very little in understanding European democracies' political response to the pandemic's first wave. We argue in this article that the negligible effect of politics, broadly defined, is confined to the first wave and that during subsequent waves over the autumn 2020 to spring 2021 season some of the above political factors contribute to our understanding of variation in countries' response. Employing a sample of 26 European democracies analyzing daily data on the stringency of adopted containment policies we provide evidence that politics does not matter during the first wave but is substantively important during later waves.

The prevalence of insomnia in different COVID-19 policy phases: Longitudinal evidence from ITA.LI - Italian Lives.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated changes in the prevalence of insomnia in Italy during COVID-19, starting from the first lockdown period (8 March 2020). We hypothesized that lockdown precipitated increased prevalence of insomnia symptoms relative to the pre-pandemic period; b) the gradual relaxation of containment measures - post-lockdown period (Phase 2 and Phase 3) - reduced insomnia severity, leading to a relative recovery of pre-pandemic levels; and c) we tested age-related heterogeneity in sleep responses, with an expected higher increase in insomnia in younger and middle-age groups. METHODS: Analyses drew on a subsample (N = 883) of respondents to ITA.LI - Italian Lives, a recently established panel study on a probability sample of individuals aged 16 + living in Italy. To estimate patterns of change in insomnia, we first fitted a random-effects ordered logistic model on the whole sample. We then added an interaction term between policy phases and the respondent age to test whether the relationship between insomnia and policy phases differed across age groups. Analyses accounted for survey non-response weights. RESULTS: The fraction of respondents reporting moderate ("somewhat" + 0.159, S.E. 0.017) or severe ("very much" + 0.142, S.E. 0.030) sleep disturbances significantly increased during Phase 1. The prevalence of insomnia followed an inverted U-shaped curve across policy phases, with further increases from baseline levels ("somewhat" + 0.168, S.E. 0.015; "very much" + 0.187, S.E. 0.030) during Phase 2, followed by a relative reduction in Phase 3, although it remained significantly higher than in the pre-pandemic period ("somewhat", + 0.084, S.E. 0.016; "very much", + 0.045, S.E. 0.010). There were significant age-related differences in insomnia patterns, as the discrete change from pre-pandemic levels in the probability of not suffering from insomnia was negative and significant for the younger age group (- 0.269, S.E. 0.060) and for respondents aged 35-54 (- 0.163, S.E. 0.039). CONCLUSION: There is reason to believe that the emergency policy response to the COVID-19 crisis may have had unintended and possibly scarring effects in terms of increased prevalence of insomnia. The hardest hit were young adults and, to a lesser extent, the middle-aged; however, older respondents (55 +) remained resilient, and their insomnia trajectory bounced back to pre-pandemic levels.

Modeling for the Stringency of Lock-Down Policies: Effects of Macroeconomic and Healthcare Variables in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Background: The spread of COVID-19 has been characterized by unprecedented global lock-downs. Although, the extent of containment policies cannot be explained only through epidemic data. Previous studies already focused on the relationship between the economy and healthcare, focusing on the impact of diseases in countries with a precarious economic situation. However, the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 drew most countries of the world into a precarious economic situation mostly caused by the global and local lock-downs policies. Methods: A discriminant analysis performed via partial least squares procedure was applied to evaluate the impact of economic and healthcare variables on the containment measures adopted by 39 countries. To collect the input variables (macroeconomic, healthcare, and medical services), we relied on official databases of international organizations, such as The World Bank and WHO. Results: The stringency lock-down policies could not only be influenced by the epidemical data, but also by previous features of the selected countries, such as economic and healthcare conditions. Conclusions: Indeed, economic and healthcare variables also contributed to shaping the implemented lock-down policies.

Determining containment policy impacts on public sentiment during the pandemic using social media data.

Stringent containment and closure policies have been widely implemented by governments to prevent the transmission of COVID-19. Yet, such policies have significant impacts on people's emotions and mental well-being. Here, we study the effects of pandemic containment policies on public sentiment in Singapore. We computed daily sentiment values scaled from −1 to 1, using high-frequency data of ∼240,000 posts from highly followed public Facebook groups during January to November 2020. The lockdown in April saw a 0.1 unit rise in daily average sentiment, followed by a 0.2 unit increase with partially lifting of lockdown in June, and a 0.15 unit fall after further easing of restrictions in August. Regarding the impacts of specific containment measures, a 0.13 unit fall in sentiment was associated with travel restrictions, whereas a 0.18 unit rise was related to introducing a facial covering policy at the start of the pandemic. A 0.15 unit fall in sentiment was linked to restrictions on public events, post lock-down. Virus infection, wearing masks, salary, and jobs were the chief concerns found in the posts. A 2 unit increase in these concerns occurred even when some restrictions were eased in August 2020. During pandemics, monitoring public sentiment and concerns through social media supports policymakers in multiple ways. First, the method given here is a near real-time scalable solution to study policy impacts. Second, it aids in data-driven and evidence-based revision of existing policies and implementation of similar policies in the future. Third, it identifies public concerns following policy changes, addressing which can increase trust in governments and improve public sentiment.

Cross-border mobility responses to COVID-19 in Europe: new evidence from facebook data.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the impact of government responses to Covid-19 is crucial to contain the pandemic and improve preparedness for future crises. We investigate here the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and infection threats on the daily evolution of cross-border movements of people during the Covid-19 pandemic. We use a unique database on Facebook users' mobility, and rely on regression and machine learning models to identify the role of infection threats and containment policies. Permutation techniques allow us to compare the impact and predictive power of these two categories of variables. RESULTS: In contrast with studies on within-border mobility, our models point to a stronger importance of containment policies in explaining changes in cross-border traffic as compared with international travel bans and fears of being infected. The latter are proxied by the numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths at destination. Although the ranking among coercive policies varies across modelling techniques, containment measures in the destination country (such as cancelling of events, restrictions on internal movements and public gatherings), and school closures in the origin country (influencing parental leaves) have the strongest impacts on cross-border movements. CONCLUSION: While descriptive in nature, our findings have policy-relevant implications. Cross-border movements of people predominantly consist of labor commuting flows and business travels. These economic and essential flows are marginally influenced by the fear of infection and international travel bans. They are mostly governed by the stringency of internal containment policies and the ability to travel.

Pandemic and containment policies in open economy

This paper analyzes the economic and epidemiological externalities of containment policies in an open-economy setting with firm entry and exit, SIR virus transmission, and a production network. Motivated by empirical evidence that non-pharmaceutical intervention policies (such as workplace closure or social distancing) are substitutes for medication-related policies (healthcare facilities and vaccine development), we incorporated four types of containment policies into our model. We find the workplace closure policy is the most effective in pandemic management, and social distance is a beggar-thy-neighbor strategy. Furthermore, we evaluate the efficacy of existing policy combinations and compare them to the optimal policy choice in the cooperative and Nash equilibrium, and a “prepare-for-worst” situation. Inter-country policy collaboration allows each country to specialize in different policies while also improving overall welfare. Real-world policies differ from optimum policies in the cooperative and Nash equilibrium, but they are closer to the second-best policies in the “prepare-for-worst” scenario, in which the U.S. policies cannot be predicted. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd

The changing epidemiology of interpersonal firearm violence during the COVID-19 pandemic in Philadelphia, PA.

Recent increases in firearm violence in U.S. cities are well-documented, however dynamic changes in the people, places and intensity of this public health threat during the COVID-19 pandemic are relatively unexplored. This descriptive epidemiologic study spanning from January 1, 2015 - March 31, 2021 utilizes the Philadelphia Police Department's registry of shooting victims, a database which includes all individuals shot and/or killed due to interpersonal firearm violence in the city of Philadelphia. We compared victim and event characteristics prior to the pandemic with those following implementation of pandemic containment measures. In this study, containment began on March 16, 2020, when non-essential businesses were ordered to close in Philadelphia. There were 331 (SE = 13.9) individuals shot/quarter pre-containment vs. 545 (SE = 66.4) individuals shot/quarter post-containment (p = 0.031). Post-containment, the proportion of women shot increased by 39% (95% CI: 1.21, 1.59), and the proportion of children shot increased by 17% (95% CI: 1.00, 1.35). Black women and children were more likely to be shot post-containment (RR 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20 and RR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.14, respectively). The proportion of mass shootings (≥4 individuals shot within 100 m within 1 h) increased by 53% post-containment (95% CI: 1.25, 1.88). Geographic analysis revealed relative increases in all shootings and mass shootings in specific city locations post-containment. The observed changes in firearm injury epidemiology following COVID-19 containment in Philadelphia demonstrate an intensification in firearm violence, which is increasingly impacting people who are likely made more vulnerable by existing social and structural disadvantage. These findings support existing knowledge about structural causes of interpersonal firearm violence and suggest structural solutions are required to address this public health threat.

The impact of health and economic policies on the spread of COVID-19 and economic activity.

This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity in the U.S. up to the introduction of vaccines in early 2021. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on economic activity by controlling for demand fluctuations using disaggregate exports data. We find that health containment and economic support policies are highly effective at curbing the spread of COVID-19 without leading to a long-term contraction of economic activity.

Containment, Health, and Social Policies in the Time of COVID-19 - Determinants and Outcomes of Initial Responses across 120 Countries.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered an unprecedented number of policy responses around the world across multiple policy domains. While governments have combined containment and health policies with social policies (CHSPs) during the initial phase of the pandemic in various ways, the current literature offers little knowledge of the patterns of these combinations and their determinants and outcomes. This paper fills this gap by investigating CHSP combinations across ≥120 countries. We further examined whether the CHSP response was determined by political regimes or compensation hypotheses-serving the purposes of responding to pre-existing economic downturns, inequality or social unrest. We also investigated the associations between CHSP responses and mobility, virus infection and unemployment. Using policy data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, results from sequence analysis indicated that governments' CHSP responses could be clustered into five categories: high social policies (SPs), middle SPs, containment and health (CH) leading SPs, low SPs and gradual high SPs. We used multinomial regression models to investigate determinants of CHSP responses. We found that CHSP responses did not differ by political regimes, and CHSP combinations were not driven by compensation hypotheses. Instead, gross domestic product per capita and government effectiveness were the key drivers for high levels of policy responses. We also found that low SP responses were associated with fewer mobility changes. Taken together, our findings suggest that lower-income countries required more support and resources in order for them to adopt necessary CH and SP responses.

The strategy of protest against Covid-19 containment policies in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: The article analyzes the epidemiological and political logics of protest against containment policies in Germany. To maximize the mobilization potential, protest organizers organize more protest events when Covid-19 mortality rates are low, the stringency of containment policies is high, and in districts in which the vote share of mainstream parties is traditionally low. METHOD: Using a negative binomial model, we analyze the number of protest events in a sample of 401 German districts over the period from March to May 2020. RESULTS: We find robust positive predicted effects of the stringency of containment policies and negative predicted effects for the mortality rate and the strengths of mainstream parties. CONCLUSION: We interpret these findings as evidence of the strategic behavior of protest organizers that target protest participation and mobilization to keep the movement alive and potentially grow it.

Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan.

To assess the effectiveness of the containment strategies proposed in Japan, an SEIAQR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-quarantined-recovered) model was established to simulate the transmission of COVID-19. We divided the spread of COVID-19 in Japan into different stages based on policies. The effective reproduction number Re and the transmission parameters were determined to evaluate the measures conducted by the Japanese Government during these periods. On 7 April 2020, the Japanese authority declared a state of emergency to control the rapid development of the pandemic. Based on the simulation results, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan can be inhibited by containment actions during the state of emergency. The effective reproduction number Re reduced from 1.99 (before the state of emergency) to 0.92 (after the state of emergency). The transmission parameters were fitted and characterized with quantifiable variables including the ratio of untracked cases, the PCR test index and the proportion of COCOA app users (official contact confirming application). The impact of these variables on the control of COVID-19 was investigated in the modelling analysis. On 8 January 2021, the Japanese Government declared another state of emergency. The simulated results demonstrated that the spread could be controlled in May by keeping the same strategies. A higher intensity of PCR testing was suggested, and a larger proportion of COCOA app users should reduce the final number of infections and the time needed to control the spread of COVID-19.

The timing and aggressiveness of early government response to COVID-19: Political systems, societal culture, and more.

Factors that drove the early timing and strictness of government responses to COVID-19 for over 150 countries are examined using the daily Coronavirus Government Response Tracker data provided by the University of Oxford. Results show that authoritarian regimes tended to have an initial policy response somewhat weaker relative to democratic regimes at the early stages of the pandemic but pursed more aggressive containment policies over the latter part of the six-month period analyzed. Unitary regimes tended to have stronger policy measures in place early on relative to federalist states but relaxed these restrictions sooner. Countries with greater freedom (political rights and civil liberties) and those that spend less on public health also exhibited slower early policy responses, but caught up within three to four months after the pandemic reached their country. There is no evidence that women leaders, viewed as a whole, put in place more aggressive polices to combat the virus relative to their male counterparts. Nor is there any evidence that either island nations or countries that experienced the start of the pandemic later in the global wave pursued different policies that other nations. Policy implications are discussed as the how nations should prepare for future pandemics.

The Luxury of Lockdown.

Regression analysis based on data from Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and the World Bank datasets for 169 countries suggests that containment policies have, in general, a significant role in reducing the pandemic's fatality rate across all countries. However (i) there is at least a three weeks lag in realising the impact, (ii) the effectiveness increases with per capita income and, more specifically, (iii) workplace closure is ineffective in low-income countries. The analysis of data from Demographic and Health Survey (the DHS Programme) and IMF Policy Tracker indicates that developing countries are unlikely to have the basis required for effectively adopting stringent lockdown measures and instead would need to consider specifically targeted lockdown policies. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41287-021-00389-x.

L'analyse de régression réalisée sur des données issues du panel de données de l'étude Oxford COVID-19 sur le suivi de la riposte gouvernementale et du panel de données de la Banque mondiale pour 169 pays suggère que les politiques de confinement ont, en général, un rôle important dans la réduction du taux de mortalité lié à la pandémie dans tous les pays. Cependant (i) il y a au moins trois semaines de délai dans l'apparition de l'impact, (ii) l'efficacité augmente avec le revenu par habitant et, plus précisément, (iii) la fermeture des lieux de travail est inefficace dans les pays à faible revenu. L'analyse des données de l'Enquête Démographique et de Santé (le programme EDS) et du Suivi des politiques du FMI indique qu'il est peu probable que les pays en développement disposent des bases nécessaires pour adopter efficacement des mesures de confinement strict et devraient plutôt envisager des politiques de confinement localisé.

Re-opening after the lockdown: Long-run aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19.

Covid-19 has dealt a devastating blow to productivity and economic growth. We employ a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous agents to identify the tradeoffs involved in restoring the economy to its pre-Covid-19 state. Several tradeoffs, both over time, and between key economic variables, are identified, with the feasible speed of successful re-opening being constrained by the transmission of the infection. In particular, while more rapid opening up of the economy will reduce short-run aggregate output losses, it will cause larger long-run output losses, which potentially may be quite substantial if the opening is overly rapid and the virus is not eradicated. More rapid opening of the economy mitigates the increases in both long-run wealth and income inequality, thus highlighting a direct conflict between the adverse effects on aggregate output and its distributional consequences.